Browsing by Author "Ciekanowski, Zbigniew"

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Development of a Digital Twin of a DC Motor Using NARX Artificial Neural Networks
(MDPI, Basel, Switzerland, 2025) Busher, Victor; Kuznetsov, Valeriy; Ciekanowski, Zbigniew; Rojek, Artur; Grudniewski, Tomasz; Druzhinina, Natalya; Kuznetsov, Vitalii V.; Tryputen, Mykola; Hubskyi, Petro V.; Batyrbek, Alibek
ENG: This study presents the development process of a digital twin for a complex dynamic object using Artificial Neural Networks. A separately excited DC motor is considered as an example, which, despite its well-known electromechanical properties, remains a non-trivial object for neural network modeling. It is shown that describing the motor using a generalized neural network with various configurations does not yield satisfactory results. The optimal solution was based on a separation into two distinct nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) artificial neural networks with cross-connections for the two main machine variables: one for modeling the armature current with exogenous inputs of voltage and armature speed, and another for modeling the angular speed with inputs of voltage and armature current. Both neural networks are characterized by a relatively small number of neurons in the hidden layer and a time delay of no more than 3 time steps. This solution, consistent with the physical understanding of the motor as an object where electromagnetic energy is converted into thermal and mechanical energy (and vice versa), allows the model to be calibrated for the ideal no-load mode and subsequently account for the influence of torque loads of various natures and changes in the control object parameters over a wide range. The study demonstrates that even for modeling an object such as a DC electric drive with cascaded control, reducing errors at the boundaries of the known operating range requires generating test signals covering approximately 120% of the nominal speed range and 250–400% of the nominal current. Analysis of various test signals revealed that training with a sequence of step changes and linear variations across the entire operating range of armature current and speed provides higher accuracy compared to training with random or uniform signals. Furthermore, to ensure the neural network model’s functionality under varying load torque, a mechanical load observer was developed, and a model architecture incorporating an additional input for disturbance was proposed. The SEDCM_NARX_LOAD neural network model demonstrates a theoretically justified response to load application, although dynamic and static errors arise. In the experiment, the current error was 7.4%, and the speed error was 0.5%. The practical significance of the research lies in the potential use of the proposed model for simulating dynamic and static operational modes of electromechanical systems, tuning controllers, and testing control strategies without employing a physical motor.
Forecasting the Power Generation of a Solar Power Plant Taking into Account the Statistical Characteristics of Meteorological Conditions
(MDPI, Basel, Switzerland, 2025) Kuznetsov, Vitalii V.; Kuznetsov, Valeriy; Ciekanowski, Zbigniew; Druzhinin, Valeriy; Tytiuk, Valerii; Rojek, Artur; Grudniewski, Tomasz; Kovalenko, Viktor
ENG: The integration of solar generation into national energy balances is associated with a wide range of technical, economic, and organizational challenges, the solution of which requires the adoption of innovative strategies for energy system management. The inherent variability of electricity production, driven by fluctuating climatic conditions, complicates system balancing processes and necessitates the reservation of capacities from conventional energy sources to ensure reliability. Under modern market conditions, the pricing of generated electricity is commonly based on day-ahead forecasts of day energy yield, which significantly affects the economic performance of solar power plants. Consequently, achieving high accuracy in day-ahead electricity production forecasting is a critical and highly relevant task. To address this challenge, a physico-statistical model has been developed, in which the analytical approximation of daily electricity generation is represented as a function of a random variable—cloud cover—modeled by a β-distribution. Analytical expressions were derived for calculating the mathematical expectation and variance of daily electricity generation as functions of the β-distribution parameters of cloudiness. The analytical approximation of daily generation deviates from the exact value, obtained through hourly integration, by an average of 3.9%. The relative forecasting error of electricity production, when using the mathematical expectation of cloudiness compared to the analytical approximation of daily generation, reaches 15.2%. The proposed forecasting method, based on a β-parametric cloudiness model, enhances the accuracy of day-ahead production forecasts, improves the economic efficiency of solar power plants, and contributes to strengthening the stability and reliability of power systems with a substantial share of solar generation.
Implementation of Value-Oriented Project Portfolio Management for the Development of Complex System
(WSGE University of Applied Sciences in Józefów, Poland, 2024) Molokanova, Valentyna M.; Kuznetsov, Vitalii V.; Kuznetsov, Valeriy; Petrenko, Vitaliy O.; Krol, Agnieszka; Ciekanowski, Zbigniew
ENG: The formation of a development portfolio is one of the key challenges facing any level of system. The aim of the article is to present a model of optimal value-oriented portfolio formation for the development of a complex system, taking into account mutual influence of portfolio components on each other. It analyses the method¬ology of portfolio development management of organizations, considers different approaches to forming a portfolio of projects, proposes the formation of a portfo¬lio of organization development based on the value-oriented approach, considers multi-criteria model of project selection in the organization development portfolio, taking into account the mutual influence of the components of the portfolio on each other. As the basic method of forming a portfolio of regional community develop¬ment using the value-based approach, taking into account the existing limits on the total value of the portfolio in the computable period is proposed. The problems of incomplete application of the portfolio management methodology in the system of public development management in Ukraine were reflected. The paper determined that although the project approach is increasingly used in Ukraine to manage the de¬velopment of territories, for many acute problems portfolio development management is not used. The necessity of managers training for portfolio management of regional systems development has been substantiated. Suggested the use of value-oriented methodology of project management to manage regional development, which significantly improves the quality of planning and effectiveness of the implementation of development strategy through projects.