Trade Policy Reversion: Quantifying the Diversionary Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers on Bilateral Trade Flows (2015–2024)
| dc.contributor.author | Pashchuk, Lidiia | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Lvova, Nina | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Zavhorodnia, Olena O. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Zhmurenko, Vitalii H. | en |
| dc.contributor.author | Runcheva, Nataliia | en |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-02-13T12:37:54Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025 | |
| dc.description | L. Pashchuk: ORCID 0000-0003-1184-1545; N. Lvova: ORCID 0000-0002-8884-3154; O. Zavhorodnia: ORCID 0000-0002-6546-1356; V. Zhmurenko: ORCID 0009-0004-1465-3050; N. Runcheva: ORCID 0000-0001-8645-9821 | en |
| dc.description.abstract | ENG: In recent years, protectionism has become a hallmark of the global economy and international trade. This study quantifies the measurable impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers on bilateral trade flows among 30 major economies from 2015 to 2024. Employing a panel data gravity model, the paper specifies the logarithm of bilateral trade flows as the dependent variable, with average tariff rates and a non-tariff measures (NTM) index as key explanatory variables, while controlling for GDP, exchange rate volatility, distance, and trade agreements. Estimations are performed using fixed-effects and instrumental-variable approaches to address potential endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. The empirical results reveal that a one-percentage-point increase in tariffs reduces bilateral trade flows by 0.12%, while a 0.1-point rise in the NTM index lowers trade by 3.5%, confirming the diversionary effects of modern protectionism. The findings demonstrate that regulatory protectionism exerts stronger trade-restrictive effects than traditional tariffs, particularly in technology-intensive sectors. Policymakers are urged to design adaptive trade strategies that preserve national competitiveness while maintaining open global trade channels to ensure sustainable growth. | en |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Ukraine; State Organization “Institute of Market and Economic & Ecological Researches, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine,” Odessa, Ukraine; Bogdan Khmelnitsky Melitopol State Pedagogical University, Melitopol, Ukraine | en |
| dc.identifier.citation | Pashchuk L., Lvova N., Zavhorodnia O., Zhmurenko V., Runcheva N. Trade Policy Reversion: Quantifying the Diversionary Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers on Bilateral Trade Flows (2015–2024). Journal of Applied Economic Sciences. 2025. Vol. 20, Iss. 4 (90). P. 717–730. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v20.4(90).05. | en |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.57017/jaes.v20.4(90).05. | en |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1843-6110 (Print) | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2393-5162 (Online) | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://www.ritha.eu/journals/JAES/issues/90/articles/5 | en |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://crust.ust.edu.ua/handle/123456789/21668 | en |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | RITHA Publishing House, Craiova, Romania | en |
| dc.rights | Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License | en |
| dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | en |
| dc.subject | trade policy | en |
| dc.subject | protectionism | en |
| dc.subject | non-tariff barriers | en |
| dc.subject | gravity model | en |
| dc.subject | panel data | en |
| dc.subject | bilateral trade flows | en |
| dc.subject | КМЕіСГД | uk_UA |
| dc.subject.classification | SOCIAL SCIENCES | en |
| dc.subject.classification | SOCIAL SCIENCES::Business and economics | en |
| dc.title | Trade Policy Reversion: Quantifying the Diversionary Impact of Non-Tariff Barriers on Bilateral Trade Flows (2015–2024) | en |
| dc.type | Article | en |